Oh Cameron

If not today, when then? It seems that the reputation of the EU among its citizens is ion its way to meet a new low. Early in the year, polling results of Eurobarometer indicated that the EU’s reputation has improved compared to the end-2014 results: 41 percent showed a positive EU image (+2 percentage points), 38 percent indicate a neutral image and 19 percent came up with a negative image (-3 percentage points). Those figures are probably already history as the refugee crisis and its handling on various levels created quite some concerns on the side of the electorate, and if we follow European media then it is the EU that is on the receiving end of frustration. This is the moment for populists as well as it is a political opening for politicians who want to fundamentally change the nature of the beast, or what is the project of European integration. And yet, it seems that the British Tories and PM David Cameron are not reaping the fruit.

A most recent Eurobarometer survey, conducted in May 2015, showed that British citizens are the least knowledgeable citizens in regards to the set up and working of the EU. Don’t get fooled, though: British skepticism against the EU has only so much to with (non)knowledge about the EU. The top-knowledgeable citizens of Denmark also show no great enthusiasm with the EU. And yet, the combination of non-knowledge and prejudice can be a chance for politicians who wants to play the Brexit game. Brexit fans are not happy about the way the Tory government and in particular PM Cameron are playing the game so far. According to a new YouGov poll voting intentions for the referendum are still split: 41% in favour to leave and 41% in favour to stay. Of course, those figures do not tell us a lot as they are to a strong degree dependent from the actual changes the Tories may win in their negotiations with the EU. Today nobody knows how those changes may look like.

Let me speculate. According to the deep digging of YouGov greater national control of borders and immigration from Europe and the limitation of benefits for bEU migrants tops the hill ist of voters when they are asked about the most prominent changes for the UK in relation with the EU. Polling results indicate that 44% of the electorate would vote to leave the EU if those concerns are not addressed properly. As it turns out, those are exactly the two key demands that meet resistance on the side of critical member states of the EU. Will the British electorate then vote to leave the EU?

A lot will depend from the phrasing of the upcoming compromise. You can be assured that there will be enormous spinning efforts from both sides to word-brush a compromise that in practice will fall behind the ‘grand change’ the Tories were demanding at the very start. Despite all crises, the EU currently is not willing to give in and to weaken a institutional structure that lives on the fact that it is a common entity. Free markets, the love anthem of the Brits, may be able to exist with restricted labor mobility, but only vaguely so, as the Tory project of unfettered capitalism actually entails free labor markets. But then, selective liberalization was always a critical part of the conservative project. Paradoxically, it will be the EU that reminds the Conservatives on the simple insight that free markets means free markets means free markets. Having free mobility of capital and finance and goods and services but restricted mobility of labor is not a too liberal project, isn’t it?

Politicians are not concerned too much about economic rationality, though. They are more interested to get re-elected and to serve the interests of their core. A too much informed debate about the future of the UK in Europe is not helpful for the case. Oh Cameron.