Dutch Nee: Tea Party à la Netherlands

If it needed any additional proof that the project of European integration is facing deep troubles, then the Dutch voters delivered in a big way. On surface, this was a referendum about the Association Agreement between the EU and Ukraine – this agreement has been ratified by all EU members, with the exemption of the Netherlands, where both chambers agreed and the government only wanted to wait for the outcome of the referendum before sending the file to Brussels. This will not happen as 61% participants of the referendum voted ’Nee’, with a quorum of 32%.

The referendum was possible due a law that came into force in July 2015 and allows Dutch citizens to call a referendum on any law, provided they successfully collect a minimum of 300,000 signatures. The outcome of such a referendum is in no legal way binding, but still gives voice to the democratic process beyond the ritual of general elections. In this particular case, PM Mark Rutte would run into deep problems if he would ratify the agreement when a small but critical minority of voters oppose the agreement.

Now, voting against EU initiatives is no unknown in the Netherlands, at least recently. In 2005, 61% of voters came out against the introduction of a European Constitution. When the diminished version of the constitution in form of the Lisbon Treaty was presented in 2009, the Dutch government at the time not even dared to present this document to the voters and passed it quietly. The Association Agreement with Ukraine is a trivial piece of cooperation in comparison, and still it generated quite some noise. One would have expected that a referendum would be actually strongly in favour as information seems to hint in clear way that Russian weapons were critical in bringing down MH17 over Eastern Ukraine in the summer of 2014 where 192 Dutch citizens were killed. Voting against the Association Agreement can be read as supporting Russia’s interest in Ukraine. If we assume for a moment, that not all 61% of votes were meant to support Putin’ stance, then the question is what the causal reasons for the ‘Nee’ have been. It seems fair to say that the referendum was not so much about the Association Agreement then it was a political signal against the power of Brussels and the policies of the EU. According to pre-referendum polls two-thirds of Dutch citizen did not know what the 2,135-page agreement actually contains. However, a strong minority – pushed by the usual anti-EU actors – knew exactly that they would not support a deal that has been arranged by the EU: Tea Party à la Netherlands.

What now? The Dutch coalition government will with high probability reject the ratification. Given that the agreement – like CETA – is a so-called mixed agreement this would keep valid all those parts of the agreement that are part of la Britain? competency of the EU, in particular the trade part of the agreement. Then the EU would add a specific protocol to the existing agreement that states that the Netherlands are excluded from particular parts of the agreement. Not too big of a deal but still a political embarrassing signal to the EU, and a bad omen for the upcoming biggie on June 23rd when British citizen will decide about their membership in the EU. Tea Party à la Britain?