Desperation or Seizing the Chance?

Japan and the EU are moving closer to finalise a trade deal that was negotiated since March 2013. If the deal would be closed in the next months, then this would be enormously quick made agreement. Mostly, such deals need a much longer time to get finalised. Thanks to Greenpeace, the current draft has been leaked. As it stands, the draft indicates a step back from the standard that was recently set by the CETA, for at least two reasons. First, the draft language is weak when it comes to environmental issues like over-fishing and harvesting timber. Both teams were dealt with in much more e stringent ways in the TTIP deal from which US-President Trump just retreated. Both arenas are political pets of Japan, and it looks that the EU is willing to sell out its principles. Second, Japan is not interested to accept the ‘International Investment Court’, the EU was eventually writing into the CETA agreement. Instead, both parties seem to be willing to settle with traditional private arbitrating.

One can wonder why the EU Commission would go down this road as it does not need a lot of knowledge to be aware that such an agreement will not be ratified on the national level. Given that the leaked document is a draft, one can hope that the final text differs. But then the suggestion that the deal full be finalised in a few weeks may not materialise. The haste off talks is understandable in political terms, though. Both parties are confronted with a US-administration that interprets ‘fair trade’ ads trade relations that unilaterally favour the US. Moreover, both parties are in a situation where the US is no longer willing to follow thorium with the talks that have been launched under President Obama. Not to forget that the international order would get strong support of Japan and the EU would create a free trade zone, kind of. In nominal terms, the European food industry would benefit most as Japan seems to be willing to at least reduce the horrendous import tariffs. Japan is interested to enter the EU automotive market without having to deal with tariffs and contingents.

Still, the recent experience with CETA and the fate of TTIP shows that the Commission should act more careful when it comes to trade deals. At this point, the Commission committed the same mistakes that brought CETA into troubling waters – low level of transparency; keeping critical actors out of the loop; trading politically sensitive items for market access goals. In other words, rather than treating trade negotiations as a comprehensive political project that needs inclusion the Commission seems to one back on its traditional path where narrow-minded economic sector interests beat political-social targets.